Key observations in the briefing paper include:

• Over the next decade, the population of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will grow by 30 percent to more than 50 million people. Such an extreme pace of change will make it difficult for GCC governments to maintain the careful balance between stability and development.
• If they are to succeed, the emirs and kings will have to carefully reform the social contract between rulers and ruled. Strains on water, energy, transport and food may become unmanageable unless they can pre-emptively improve efficiency at the same time as satisfying demand.
• A look at how the GCC's leaders might meet these challenges and what may happen if they cannot adapt to the coming change.

G4S Risk Consulting is proud to present the fourth quarterly Global Forecast for 2016, once again in collaboration with Roubini Global Economics.

In it, we trace the key security and economic developments region by region that are likely to impact operating environments in Q4 to help clients and colleagues prepare for the threats ahead.

Key developments covered in our Global Forecast 2016 Q4 include:

• The ongoing threat of terrorism in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and Asia and the likelihood of further unsophisticated attacks
• Political uncertainty across Europe, North America and Africa and the potential for unrest from social tensions
• Regional security concerns in Asia and the Middle East and North Africa
• Aviation security threats and developments, including airport perimeter security and drones
• The modest growth of the global economy as the Eurozone wanes, the US cools following a strong Q3 and Chinese fiscal impulses fade
• A pickup in demand among commodity-rich countries in South America and Russia driving modest growth in emerging markets

As the battle to force Islamic State (IS) from Sirte continues, the rest of Libya remains divided.

The war with IS has done little to paper over the cracks of post-Gaddafi Libya as the UN-sponsored Government of National Accord (GNA) struggles to gather support from the multitude of self-interested militias vying for control.

At a time that Libyan crude exports are set to increase, this G4S Risk Consulting briefing paper focuses on the divided state's fractured future. 

Click Here to download the report

India is undergoing vast and rapid urbanisation, with the country's urban population set to account for 75 percent of India's GDP by 2020. The importance of India's urban centres and the need for adequate security to ensure the benefits of urbanisation are safely realised is underlined further by the Modi administration's Smart Cities initiative.

However, the impacts of climate change - in India and regionally - make this challenging, while the process of urbanisation is increasing vulnerability for people and businesses to extreme weather events.

• Issues covered include
• Smart Cities resilience
• Flooding and mitigation
• Drought and mitigation
• Risk contagion, including civil unrest, business risks and energy security

G4S Risk Consulting is proud to present the third quarterly Global Forecast for 2016, once again in collaboration with Roubini Global Economics.
 
The report traces the key security and economic developments, region by region, identifying trends that are likely to impact operating environments, enabling clients to better mitigate the highlighted threats.    Developments covered in our Global Forecast 2016 Q3 include:

• The extant threat of terrorism across Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.
• Likelihood of increased civil unrest throughout Q3, particularly in the Americas, over infrastructure deficiencies, political and economic crises, and election campaigns
• Health and environment concerns, including disease pandemics and the associated risks of famine and drought
• The global impact of Brexit as the result appears to have triggered a risk-off environment
• The ongoing challenges for emerging markets as low commodity prices endure  

Click Here to download a copy of the report

This paper assesses the current security environment in Rio de Janeiro, highlighting the most relevant threats to attendees to the Games.
 
The analysis also considers the potential effect of the country’s current political crisis on the planning and management of the Games. Travellers are advised to consider issues such as crime, civil unrest and health concerns, implementing travel contingency measures where possible.

Click Here to download a copy of the report

As France prepares to host the 2016 UEFA European Championship from 10 June -10 July, this report examines the travel and security risks to attendees.

Particular focus is given to the terrorism threat, as well as the potential for future industrial action, civil unrest and travel disruption.

The paper illustrates the need for visitors to consider travel management and contingency planning to ensure the highlighted risks are mitigated as much as possible.

Click Here to download the report

Despite the latest peace efforts, the country's security environment is going through a period of deterioration as organised criminal groups intensify their operations. The paper examines  the current peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the country's main rebel groups, as well as the challenges surrounding the ceasefire. 

The analysis highlights the operational risks for current and prospective investors and provides potential scenarios for the outcome of the peace negotiations.

Click Here to download the report

G4S Risk Consulting is proud to present the second quarterly Global Forecast for 2016, once again in collaboration with Roubini Global Economics.
 
In it, we trace the key security and economic developments region by region that are likely to impact operating environments in Q2, to better enable clients to prepare for the threats identified. Developments covered in our Global Forecast 2016 Q2, include:
 

• Sport-related terrorism and the threat from Islamist-influenced militancy in Europe​
• Civil societies combining with judiciaries to hold governments to account in Africa and South America
• Challenges ahead for political and economic reform in Asia, primarily due to corruption and institutional weakness
• Risk of unrest in Central America during election campaigns
• Turbulence looming in Russia’s near-abroad, with governments nervous about Moscow's next expedition
• Low commodity prices constrain growth across the regions, but helps moves to diversify
• Uncertainty and crisis clouding economic outlook in Europe
• Bangladesh central bank hack highlights cyber security risks for major financial institutions

Click Here to download a copy of the report

Click Here for the Spanish version of the report

The attacks in Paris in November 2015 that included an attempt to target the Stade de France highlights the increasing threat posed by Islamist-related terrorism against sports. Attention is now focused upon the upcoming Euro 2016 Football Championships in France and the Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.
Our briefing paper considers the evolving threat towards global sporting events and their attractiveness to terrorist groups.
Fundamental issues for consideration include:

• Target hardening and heightening stadium security
• Displacement of the threat, making approach routes, nearby amenities and public transport hubs viable secondary targets.
• Crowd management pre- and post-events, stadia access and egress, and management of people within the vicinity.
• Corporate considerations when attending global sporting events

The pace at which the Zika virus has moved across Latin America and the Caribbean indicates the emergence of a new global pandemic threat that risks a public health emergency for new parents in emerging market economies.

With the Rio 2016 Olympic Games in Brazil approaching in August, there is an imminent deadline for a comprehensive response to scale back the threat.

Our briefing paper looks at the epidemic's threat profile, focusing on the aedes aegypti mosquito, one of the best-adapted vectors of tropical diseases in low-income cities.


Click Here to download the report

On the morning of Thursday 14 January, a group of six armed terrorists launched an attack in the heart of the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia’s capital. There followed a series of grenade blasts and a protracted gun battle between the terrorists and the police on one of the city’s main thoroughfares, Jl MH Thamrin, along which are situated many luxury hotels, government and office buildings, embassies and shopping malls. The immediate location of the assault was a complex of buildings which includes the Sarinah Department Store, The Jakarta Theatre and the Cakrawala (or Skyline) Building. The event marks the worst terrorist attack the country has seen since the bombing of the JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton Hotels in July 2009. 

Click Here to download the report

G4S Risk Consulting is pleased to present the Global Forecast 2016. 

In the forecast, we trace region by region the key trends that we believe will emerge during the year. This is our first forecast in collaboration with leading global macroeconomic research firm Roubini Global Economics. The forecast now provides a holistic approach, encompassing political, security and economic risk. 

Key trends include: 

• Increased terrorist threat globally as Islamic State continues its propaganda war, effectively winning recruits around the world
• Protests against state-level corruption and accountability will continue across much of the world as transparent governance becomes a core issue among electorates. 
• The El Niño phenomenon is expected to increasingly affect security and economics in the coming year as crop yields fall and flooding and droughts affect business continuity. 

We hope that our Global Forecasts continue to inform your own assessment of risk and we look forward to bringing you our first update towards the end of Q1, 2016.

Click Here to download the report